Sweeping US import tariffs are grabbing global headlines, but according to a leading Raine & Horne Rural principal, it’s the upcoming Federal Election that’s having a greater impact on rural real estate.

Australia has been hit with an import tariff of 10%. Beef remains the sector most exposed to the US market, though strong US demand should hold exporters in good stead. In 2024, the United States accounted for 30.7% of Australia’s beef exports (up from 17% in 2022)[i]. Agricultural issues have been a sticking point in the US-Australia trade relationship for decades. Mari Koeeck, Director of Engagement and Impact at the United States Studies Centre, said, “While US tariffs or restrictions may limit imports of Australian beef, Australia’s beef exports globally may increase as they diversify their markets, like they did following China’s restrictions in 2020.”

Tom Herbert, an Agricultural Analyst at Bendigo Bank, said the latest beef export volumes to the USA are expected to continue at high levels witnessed over the past year. The only limiting factor is the processing capacity of local centres due to supply chain issues[ii].

“Beef is forecast to remain in high demand from consumers and with US beef importers, who will now be paying more to access product. It seems likely this will have a flow on effect to US domestic consumers,” he said.

Upcoming election not international trade is impacting rural property markets

When it comes to how beef tariffs will affect rural property values, John Hetherington, Principal of Raine & Horne Rural Great Southern in Western Australia’s south coast region, says local politics—not international trade—is making the bigger waves.

“The fallout from President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announced on 3 April has created some noise, but it’s having far less impact than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision to call an election for 3 May,” John said.

“The consensus in the market is that the US will keep buying our beef, so the tariffs are unlikely to have much effect on rural property values. Australia exports a lot of beef to the US for burgers, and the 10% tariff won’t change that demand.”

He added, “With the Aussie dollar sitting around $US0.60, even with the tariff, Australian beef remains a bargain for US buyers.”

Instead, it’s the looming election that’s affecting rural property activity. “Elections tend to stall listings and transactions, as many vendors adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach. At the same time, buyer enquiries slow down for the same reason,” John explained.

“In our view, the election is having a much bigger impact on rural real estate than the tariff announcements. Elections suck decision-making out of the market—so the sooner we get past 3 May, the better.”

Contact your local Raine & Horne Rural agent today for all your rural real estate needs.

[i] https://www.ussc.edu.au/by-the-numbers-australian-beef-exports-to-the-united-states-and-china-explored

[ii] https://www.bendigobank.com.au/business/industries/agribusiness/agriculture-insights/cattle/april-2025/