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Real estate values defy rate increases for the fourth consecutive month

July 3, 2023

In June, the real estate market's rebound persisted, as housing values experienced their fourth consecutive month of growth.

CoreLogic's national Home Value Index (HVI) revealed a 1.1% increase, which was close to the 1.2% gain recorded in May.

Since finding a floor in February, the national measure of housing values has gained 3.4%.

Every mainland capital city saw dwelling values rise in June, with CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, noting that Sydney continues to lead the cycle.

“Sydney home values increased another 1.7% in June, taking the cumulative recovery since the January trough to 6.7%.  In dollar terms, Sydney’s median housing values are rising by roughly $4,262 a week,” he said.

A lack of available supply continues to be the main factor keeping upwards pressure on housing values, Mr Lawless said.  “Through June, the flow of new capital city listings was nearly -10% below the previous five-year average and total inventory levels are more than a quarter below average.  Simultaneously, our June quarter estimate of capital city sales has increased to be 2.1% above the previous five-year average.”

According to Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP current projections suggests that property prices have already reached the bottom of this cycle and will rise around 5% next year as interest rates start to fall.

Shane Oliver attributes the resurgence in property values to a combination of factors. One key factor is an inherent disparity between the demand and supply of homes, creating an imbalance. Additionally, the AMP economist believes there is a sense of FOMO (fear of missing out) influencing the market dynamics. Furthermore, the surge in immigration, which is expected to surpass a record of 400,000 this year, has contributed to the fastest population growth in 15 years. Simultaneously, the supply of new dwellings is decreasing due to declining building approvals, further impacting the property market.

“Talk of rising prices and shortages has in turn further boosted demand with an element of FOMO (fear of missing out) attracting buyers into the market who until earlier this year were still waiting for lower prices before coming back in.

“At the same time the “sticker shock” of rate hikes appears [to] have worn off for less interest rate constrained buyers, although this will likely prove to be temporary as rates keep rising.”

Away from the capital cities, regional housing values have also trended higher, albeit at a slower pace relative to the capitals. The combined regionals index also recorded a fourth consecutive month of growth, taking housing values 1.2% higher than the recent low in February.